Physical Scientist / Ensemble Modeling Developer - Atmospheric River Forecasting

Job Description

Job Description

Axiom is seeking a candidate to support the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in carrying out research and development work related to the Unified Forecast System (UFS) based Atmospheric River Forecasting System..

The incumbent will support the Water in the West initiative by supporting the development and implementation of the On-Demand Regional Atmospheric River Ensemble Forecast System (AR-EFS) within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework. The position focuses on advancing ensemble-based regional modeling, developing data assimilation and post-processing techniques, and preparing the system for real-time applications and potential transition to NWS operations.

Responsibilities

The candidate will perform their job duties to a high standard, working both independently and collaboratively. They will assist in managing projects and in developing and applying innovative methods within the primary work areas outlined below. The candidate will collaborate with EMC scientists and external partners to calibrate, optimize, and evaluate the UFS-based Atmospheric River Forecasting systems. The primary focus will be on designing and developing ensemble modeling capabilities for Atmospheric River forecasts, including development of advanced algorithm enhancements, physical parameterization schemes, and data assimilation.

The successful candidate will work on supporting the following scientific and engineering tasks:

• Design, develop, and implement ensemble-based regional AR-EFS configurations using the UFS framework.
• Develop and test ensemble perturbation methods, multi-physics configurations, and stochastic physics schemes to improve probabilistic AR prediction skill.
• Integrate and evaluate regional data assimilation components using in-situ and satellite observations (e.g., AR Recon data, ASSIST radiances).
• Conduct retrospective and near-real-time ensemble experiments for multiple Atmospheric River (AR) seasons.
• Collaborate with partners (e.g., EMC, WPC, CW3E, and OAR) to refine model configurations and evaluate system performance.
• Support Transition to Operations (T2O) planning with NCEP Central Operations (NCO), ensuring compliance with operational standards and HPC constraints.
• Prepare scientific documentation, technical reports, and peer-reviewed publications summarizing findings and outcomes.

Qualifications:

Advanced degree (M.S. or Ph.D.) in Atmospheric Science, Meteorology, Oceanography, Computer Science, or a related field with at least 5 years of experience in scientific programming and at least 3 years of specialized experience in coupled forecast and data assimilation systems.

Demonstrated knowledge, skills, and abilities in at least five of the following areas:

• Demonstrated experience in numerical weather prediction (NWP) model development and testing (preferably UFS, FV3, HAFS, or similar).
• Strong background in ensemble forecasting, data assimilation, or stochastic physics.
• Proficiency with high-performance computing (HPC) environments and parallel programming.
• Strong analytical and communication skills; ability to work in collaborative, multi-institutional teams.

Preferred Qualifications:

• Experience with NOAA operational or experimental modeling systems.
• Familiarity with probabilistic verification metrics and ensemble bias correction methods.
• Experience coordinating transition-to-operations (T2O) or real-time testbed
• Record of peer-reviewed publications in ensemble modeling or atmospheric river prediction.

Axiom offers competitive compensation packages including comprehensive medical/dental/life insurance and matching 401(k) contribution.

The contractor will not discharge or in any other manner discriminate against employees or applicants because they have inquired about, discussed, or disclosed their own pay or the pay of another employee or applicant. However, employees who have access to the compensation information of other employees or applicants as a part of their essential job functions cannot disclose the pay of other employees or applicants to individuals who do not otherwise have access to compensation information, unless the disclosure is (a) in response to a formal complaint or charge, (b) in furtherance of an investigation, proceeding, hearing, or action, including an investigation conducted by the employer, or (c) consistent with the contractor's legal duty to furnish information. 41 CFR 60-1.35(c)

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